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Forecast Admin

The Forecast Admin surface provides tools for configuring how demand forecasts are generated, managing forecast models, submitting versions, and importing bulk data. These settings significantly impact forecast quality.

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Accessing Forecast Admin

The same surface is available from two entry points: Both entry points show the same five tabs:

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Admin tab

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Forecast date range configuration

The Forecast Date Range Configuration card controls how far forward forecasts extend:

• Forecast end date mode — choose one year out, end of the current year, end of the next year, or a custom end date. When custom periods are configured, a quick-select lets you pick a period’s end date directly.
• New period initialization — choose whether newly added periods start at zero or copy values forward.

Click Save Configuration to apply. A confirmation appears: “Configuration updated. Regenerate forecasts to apply changes.” — configuration changes do not take effect in forecast values until the next generation run.

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Forecast generation status

The Forecast Generation Status card shows the current state of demand forecast generation and lets you trigger a run:

• A status indicator shows Generating…, Last generation successful, or Last generation failed.
• Click Generate Forecasts to start a run. While a run is in progress the button label switches to Generating… and a progress bar appears.
• After a run completes, the card shows the Last Generated timestamp and the Total Forecasts count.
• If the last run failed, a Generation Error alert shows the error message.

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Calculation coverage summary

This card summarizes the calculated historical sales data that feeds the forecast algorithms: total records, active channels, active SKUs, coverage percentage, the covered date range, and the calculation status.

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Calculate historical sales

Use the Calculate Historical Sales card to aggregate sales orders into daily historical sales records for a date range:

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Models tab

The Models tab (Model Management) is where you create and manage forecast models. A model is a method for generating a possible forecast. Each model uses an algorithm that defines how forecast values are calculated. Your organization can define multiple models with different algorithms and compare their outputs.

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Available algorithms

Tether provides 11 forecast algorithms you can assign to models:

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Creating a model

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Quick actions

The Quick Actions card on the Models tab includes:

• Generate Forecasts — a second entry point for regenerating model outputs, equivalent to the button on the Admin tab.
• Optimize All — runs parameter optimization for every model whose algorithm supports auto-tune.
• New Model — opens the model creation form.

The Current Selection card shows which model currently drives the official sales forecast, and the Model Overview table lists every model with edit, delete, and optimize actions.

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Consensus Model

If your organization has no Consensus Model yet, the Models tab offers Create Consensus Forecast Model. The Consensus Model enables direct editing of forecast values for specific SKU-channel combinations, so you can override algorithmic forecasts with business knowledge. See Editing Forecasts.

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Parameter optimization (auto-tune)

Seven of the 11 algorithms support automatic parameter optimization. When enabled, the system finds the best parameter values by minimizing forecast error on historical data. Optimization methods:

• Nelder-Mead Simplex — used for algorithms with continuous parameters (e.g., smoothing factors, weights). Iteratively adjusts parameters to minimize error.
• Grid Search — used for SARIMA, which has discrete integer parameters (AR/MA orders). Tests all combinations within specified ranges.

Error metrics available for optimization: Per-SKU/channel optimization: Optimized parameters are stored per SKU-channel combination, so each product-channel pair can have its own tuned settings within a model.

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Versioning tab

The Versioning tab manages forecast version submissions:

• Versioning Status — shows whether versioning is enabled and the current period. Admin users can enable versioning and open Versioning Settings.
• Submit Version — snapshots the current forecast as a named version for the current period.
• Submission History — lists past submissions with name, submitted timestamp and user, and version label. Each submission can be downloaded.

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Upload tab

The Upload tab imports forecast or sales data in bulk from CSV.

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Data types

Choose what the upload targets: For baseline uploads, pick an existing label or enter a new one (e.g., “Q4 2024 Optimistic”). Existing baselines are listed on the tab and can be managed there.

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Templates

Click Download Template to get a starter CSV. The template format follows your organization’s period configuration automatically: Standard date template (default): Custom period template (when custom time aggregations are enabled):

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Upload process

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Upload validation

The system validates all uploads:

• SKU codes must exist in the system
• Channel names must match existing channels
• Quantities must be numeric and non-negative
• Dates must be in a valid format; period labels and fiscal years must match configured periods
• Duplicate SKU + channel + date/period combinations are flagged

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Availability tab

The Availability tab shows the SKU availability matrix — which SKUs are available on which channels. Unlike the other tabs, it is visible to all users with demand access, and it is the only tab non-admin users see at Demand → Admin.

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Data quality

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Data requirements by algorithm

Different algorithms have different minimum data requirements:

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Best practices

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Troubleshooting

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Forecasts not updating

Possible causes:

• No generation run has happened since the change — configuration changes wait for the next run.
• The modified model is not the currently selected model — only the selected model drives the official forecast.
• Data sync has not completed, so the latest sales history is not yet available.

Solutions:

1. Click Generate Forecasts on the Admin or Models tab.
2. Check the Current Selection card on the Models tab to confirm which model is active.
3. Check that data integrations have synced, then recalculate historical sales if needed.

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Generation fails

Possible causes:

• Insufficient historical sales data for the selected algorithm.
• A generation run is already in progress.

Solutions:

1. Check the Generation Error alert on the Forecast Generation Status card for the specific message.
2. Review the Calculation Coverage Summary — if coverage is low, run Calculate Historical Sales first.
3. Wait for the in-progress run to finish before starting another.

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Upload errors

Common issues:

• Wrong template type (date template vs. period template).
• SKU codes or channel names that don’t match existing records.
• Invalid date format (use MM/DD/YYYY or YYYY-MM-DD).
• Mixing date and period columns in the same file.

Solutions:

1. Download the template again — it matches your organization’s period configuration.
2. Verify all SKU codes and channel names exist in the system before uploading.
3. Check for non-numeric or negative quantity values.

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Next Steps