What-If Scenarios
What-if analysis lets you test different scenarios before making decisions. See how changes in demand, lead times, or supplier availability would affect your supply chain by comparing the simulation’s two forecast routes.What is What-If Analysis?
What-if scenarios modify simulation inputs to answer questions like:- “What if demand increases 20% next quarter?”
- “What if our primary supplier’s lead time doubles?”
- “What if a supplier can’t deliver for two months?”
- “What if we add a backup supplier?”
User Forecast Route vs. System Forecast Route
Understanding the simulation’s two routes is essential for interpreting what-if results.The Two Routes
The simulation engine processes each SKU-warehouse pairing through two parallel routes:| Route | What It Does | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| User Forecast Route | Projects inventory using your existing supply plan (current drafts, submitted orders, in-progress transactions) | Understanding the impact of your current plan |
| System Forecast Route | Generates new replenishment orders from scratch based on configuration rules (cadence, safety stock, lead times, MOQ) | Seeing what the system recommends as optimal |
How the Routes Differ
- User Forecast Route
- System Forecast Route
The User Forecast Route answers: “What happens with my current plan?”
- Uses existing supply plan drafts and orders as supply events
- Does not generate any new replenishment orders
- Shows the real-world outcome of your current decisions
- Consumption (demand forecast) is applied, but no new supply is created
- Useful for validating whether your current orders are sufficient
Comparing Routes in What-If
The power of what-if analysis comes from comparing both routes across scenarios:| Comparison | What You Learn |
|---|---|
| Baseline User vs. Scenario User | How your current plan holds up under changed conditions |
| Baseline System vs. Scenario System | How the optimal recommendation changes under new conditions |
| Scenario User vs. Scenario System | The gap between your current plan and the system’s recommendation in the scenario |
Why Use What-If Analysis?
| Benefit | Description |
|---|---|
| Risk Assessment | Understand how disruptions affect inventory before they happen |
| Decision Support | Test ordering changes before committing to them |
| Contingency Planning | Prepare responses for supply chain disruptions |
| Optimization | Find the best balance between inventory cost and stockout risk |
| Stakeholder Communication | Show data-backed projections to support supply chain decisions |
Running What-If Scenarios
Basic What-If Flow
Run Baseline Simulation
First, run a standard simulation to establish your baseline. This generates both the User Route and System Route projections with your current parameters.
Enter What-If Mode
Switch to what-if mode to modify scenario parameters without affecting your actual configuration.
Configure Scenario Parameters
Adjust the parameters you want to test (demand multiplier, lead time changes, supplier constraints).
Run Scenario Simulation
Execute the simulation with modified parameters. The engine runs the same day-by-day projection with your changes applied.
Accessing What-If Mode
- Navigate to Inventory → Supply Simulation
- Run a baseline simulation first
- Select What-If Mode or Scenario Analysis
- Configure your scenario parameters
- Run the scenario simulation
Scenario Types
Demand Scenarios
Test changes in customer demand to prepare for growth, promotions, or downturns:| Parameter | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Demand Multiplier | Scale all demand by a factor | 1.2 = 20% increase across all SKUs |
| SKU-Level Adjustment | Change demand for specific products | Double demand for SKU-001 only |
| Channel Adjustment | Modify demand by sales channel | Wholesale demand +50% |
- The demand forecast values are multiplied by the specified factor
- This changes daily consumption quantities throughout the simulation horizon
- Both routes recalculate with the modified demand
- Preparing inventory for upcoming promotions
- Planning for seasonal demand increases
- Stress-testing your supply chain against demand surges
- Modeling the impact of losing a sales channel
Lead Time Scenarios
Test changes in delivery times to prepare for logistics disruptions:| Parameter | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Lead Time Multiplier | Scale all lead times by a factor | 1.5 = 50% longer across all suppliers |
| Supplier-Specific Change | Modify lead time for one supplier | Supplier A lead time +30 days |
| Route-Specific Change | Adjust lead time for specific logistics routes | All Asia-origin shipments +14 days |
- Order landing dates shift later:
landing_date = order_date + (lead_time × multiplier) - This creates a gap between when orders are placed and when inventory arrives
- Safety stock breach detection may trigger earlier ordering to compensate
- Preparing for shipping disruptions (port congestion, carrier delays)
- Evaluating impact of switching to a slower, cheaper shipping method
- Stress-testing safety stock levels against extended lead times
Supplier Scenarios
Test supplier availability changes to prepare for supply chain disruptions:| Parameter | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Capacity Constraint | Limit a supplier’s maximum output | Supplier A max 1,000 units per month |
| Supplier Unavailable | Remove a supplier entirely from the simulation | No orders from Supplier B |
| New Supplier | Add a new supplier capability | Backup supplier with 45-day lead time |
- The System Route adjusts which suppliers are eligible for each SKU
- If a supplier is removed, the simulation must source from alternatives (if configured)
- If no alternative exists, the simulation shows stockouts
- Supplier bankruptcy or factory shutdown
- Quality issues requiring a supplier hold
- Evaluating backup supplier options before committing
Configuring Scenarios
Demand Multiplier
Set Demand Multiplier
Enter the multiplier value:
- 1.0 = No change (same as baseline)
- 1.2 = 20% increase in all demand
- 0.8 = 20% decrease in all demand
- 2.0 = Double all demand
Lead Time Multiplier
Set Lead Time Multiplier
Enter the multiplier value:
- 1.0 = No change
- 1.5 = 50% longer lead times
- 2.0 = Double all lead times
Supplier Constraints
Add Constraint
Specify supplier limitations:
- Select the supplier to constrain
- Set the constraint type (capacity limit or unavailable)
- Define parameters (max units, date range)
How What-If Compares Against Baseline
What is the Baseline?
The baseline is your standard simulation run with no modifications. It represents the current state of your supply chain given existing configurations, orders, and demand forecasts. The baseline produces:- Baseline User Route — projection with your current supply plan
- Baseline System Route — projection with system-recommended orders
Comparison Mechanics
When you run a what-if scenario, the simulation generates a second set of projections with the modified parameters. You can then compare:| Metric | Baseline | Scenario | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockout Count | How many SKUs stock out in baseline | How many stock out in scenario | Change in stockout exposure |
| Stockout Days | Total days of zero inventory | Total days in scenario | Duration impact |
| Safety Stock Breaches | Days below safety stock | Days below in scenario | Risk change |
| Order Count | Number of replenishment orders | Number in scenario | Operational impact |
| Order Value | Total cost of orders | Total cost in scenario | Financial impact |
| Coverage Days | Average days of inventory on hand | Average in scenario | Buffer change |
Visual Comparison
The chart view supports direct comparison between baseline and scenario:- Overlay mode — both projections displayed on the same chart, making it easy to see where they diverge
- Side-by-side — baseline and scenario charts displayed next to each other for detailed comparison
Interpreting the Gap
| Gap Pattern | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Lines stay close | Your supply chain is resilient to this change | No immediate action needed |
| Scenario drops below baseline | The change creates inventory risk | Consider mitigation strategies |
| Scenario drops below safety stock | Stockout risk under this scenario | Increase safety stock or add supply |
| Scenario above baseline | The change improves inventory (e.g., reduced demand) | Potential to reduce orders and save cost |
Events Panel in What-If
Understanding Events
The events panel shows all supply chain events for a selected SKU-warehouse pairing, organized by day. In what-if mode, the panel highlights differences between baseline and scenario events.Event Categories
| Category | Events Included |
|---|---|
| Consumption | Sales forecast, transfer out, production consumption |
| Incoming Supply | Purchase order landing, transfer in, production completion |
| Order Placement | New orders generated by the System Route |
| Alerts | Safety stock breaches, stockout warnings |
What-If Event Differences
In what-if mode, the events panel shows:- Modified events — events that changed due to scenario parameters (e.g., an order landing later because lead time increased)
- New events — events that only exist in the scenario (e.g., additional orders generated to cover increased demand)
- Removed events — events from the baseline that no longer occur in the scenario (e.g., a supplier order that can’t be placed because the supplier is unavailable)
Using the Events Panel
Common Scenarios
Growth Planning
“What if sales grow 25% next quarter?”- Does the System Route generate enough additional orders to cover the increase?
- Are supplier capacities sufficient for larger order quantities?
- Does safety stock need to increase to buffer higher variability?
- What is the incremental cost of additional inventory?
Disruption Planning
“What if shipping from Asia takes 2 weeks longer?”- Which SKUs breach safety stock with extended lead times?
- Does the system accelerate order dates to compensate?
- Is current safety stock sufficient as a buffer?
- Are there alternative suppliers with shorter lead times?
Supplier Risk
“What if our primary supplier can’t deliver in Q4?”- How many SKUs are affected (single-source vs. multi-source)?
- Can backup suppliers cover the gap?
- What is the stockout exposure if no alternative is available?
- How far in advance should you build safety stock?
Seasonal Demand
“What if holiday demand doubles?”- When should you start building inventory (pre-season buildup)?
- Are supplier lead times short enough to react?
- What is the total additional order value?
- Will warehouses have capacity for the extra inventory?
Using Scenarios for Decisions
When to Run Scenarios
| Situation | Scenario to Run |
|---|---|
| Before promotions | Demand increase (1.5–2.0× multiplier) |
| Logistics disruption news | Lead time increase for affected routes |
| Supplier issues | Supplier capacity constraints or removal |
| Budget planning | Multiple demand growth scenarios |
| New supplier evaluation | Add new supplier and compare vs. current |
| Safety stock review | Run baseline, then increase safety stock to see impact |
Making Decisions
- Run multiple scenarios — test optimistic, expected, and pessimistic cases
- Identify breaking points — at what demand level or lead time does your supply chain fail?
- Compare costs — weigh the cost of extra safety stock against the risk of stockouts
- Choose strategy — balance inventory carrying cost against service level risk
- Document assumptions — record what parameters you tested and why
Scenario Analysis Workflow
Comprehensive Analysis
For major decisions, run a full scenario matrix:| Scenario | Demand | Lead Time | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | −10% | −20% | Best case — can you reduce inventory? |
| Expected | 0% | 0% | Baseline — current state |
| Moderate Risk | +20% | +25% | Likely challenge — are you prepared? |
| Worst Case | +30% | +50% | Stress test — where does the system break? |
Document Findings
| Finding | Current Plan | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Stockout risk if lead times +50% | 30-day safety stock | Increase to 45 days for affected SKUs |
| Can handle +20% demand | Current inventory levels | No change needed |
| Primary supplier failure = 12 stockouts | Single source for 12 SKUs | Add backup supplier for critical items |
| Holiday 2× demand | Current plan starts ordering too late | Begin pre-season buildup 60 days early |
Best Practices
Always Start with a Baseline
Always Start with a Baseline
Run a baseline simulation before any what-if analysis:
- Establishes your reference point
- Documents current key metrics (stockouts, coverage, order value)
- Enables meaningful before/after comparison
Test Realistic Scenarios
Test Realistic Scenarios
Focus on scenarios that could actually happen:
- Use historical disruptions as a guide (past lead time spikes, demand surges)
- Test known upcoming risks (supplier contract renewals, seasonal peaks)
- Avoid extreme scenarios unless doing stress tests
Review Both Routes
Review Both Routes
Don’t just look at one projection:
- User Route shows if your current plan can handle the scenario
- System Route shows what the optimal response would be
- The gap between them tells you what actions to take
Combine Multiple Factors
Combine Multiple Factors
Real disruptions rarely happen in isolation:
- Test demand increase combined with lead time delays
- Test supplier issues combined with increased demand
- Compound scenarios reveal hidden vulnerabilities
Use the Events Panel
Use the Events Panel
Dig into the details beyond the chart lines:
- See exactly which orders change between baseline and scenario
- Identify the specific days where inventory drops
- Understand the root cause of any stockout projections
Troubleshooting
Unexpected Scenario Results
Possible causes:- Incorrect multiplier values (e.g., 20 instead of 1.2 for a 20% increase)
- Scenario parameters not applied to the intended scope (all SKUs vs. specific)
- Configuration issues in the baseline (missing cadence, lead times, or supplier data)
- Verify the multiplier values are correct (1.2 = 20% increase, not 120×)
- Check that the scenario scope matches your intent
- Run a fresh baseline and confirm it looks correct before running what-if
Can’t Compare to Baseline
Possible causes:- Baseline simulation was not saved or has expired
- Different time periods between baseline and scenario
- Underlying data changed between runs
- Run a fresh baseline simulation
- Ensure the same time horizon is used for both runs
- Compare immediately after running the baseline to avoid data drift
Scenario Shows No Difference
Possible causes:- Parameter change is too small to affect the projection
- The affected SKUs are already overstocked (buffer absorbs the change)
- Multiplier is set to 1.0 (no change)
- Increase the parameter change to see a more visible effect
- Check if safety stock and existing inventory buffer the change
- Verify the multiplier is not set to 1.0
Next Steps
Running Simulations
Execute baseline and scenario simulations
Configurations
Configure safety stock, cadence, and lead times
Charts
Visualize and compare projection charts
Supply Plan
Manage orders and accept recommendations